This is an extract from Tony Czarnecki’s book: ‘Democracy for a Human Federation’
This scenario assumes an orderly transition of the EU into a federation, carried out in small steps, but ultimately leading to the implementation of an entirely new, federal system of governance. This is broadly what has been happening so far. It was possible that this policy of small steps could have led to a complete federalization of the whole EU by the end of this decade. But Covid-19 changed everything.
Even if the pandemics had not happened, and the EU would have still procrastinated with federalization, the clear winner would have been Russia. It is highly likely that Russia will remain an autocratic country in the near future and any delay by the EU in moving faster towards federalization would serve Russia very well. Its continuous threat to the Baltic countries, Poland, Moldova, and the Ukraine will be even bigger and can trigger, perhaps by accident, rather than by a deliberate action, a proxy war or even a direct conflict. Poland particularly might then find itself on the wrong side of the EU divide due to the policies of the right-wing PIS-led government (if it is still in power). Germany might try to find its middle ground, as it usually does with Russia, and France is a big unknown these days. In any case the future of the federal Europe would not look rosy in this context. Politics and policies do not move fast enough in this rapidly changing world.
But the EU needs to be transformed into a partial or a full federation right now because of everything that has been said so far. Unfortunately, as things stand right now, the EU is completely unprepared for a relatively quick federalization. Nevertheless, it may have no other option but to federate as quickly as possible, prompted by the wave of shocks stemming from the Covid-19 post pandemic crisis, the rise of populism, tendencies towards autocracy in some countries, Euro crises, or referenda concerning regional independence.